Last Update: January 6, 2015
Original: March 21, 2011
January 6, 2015
Flyer
for the public speech on Saturday, January 24, 2015: 「地域と高齢者と医療」.
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April 27, 2012
Flyer
for the public speech on Saturday, May 19, 2012: 「地縁と地域力」
If
you do not see the flyer, please click on the following URL:
KSB:
Kumagai Seminar Blog: http://blog.livedoor.jp/fk_seminar/
http://members2.jcom.home.ne.jp/fkumagai/Friendship/Friendship.html
August 26, 2011
Dear Friends,
You might be interested in the
following article that appeared in the recent edition of The Economist.
Source: The Economist (http://www.economist.com/node/21526945)
Accessed on: August 26, 2011
Japan’s
economic prospects
Out of the ruins
A decent recovery may be on the way
Aug 27th 2011 | TOKYO
| from the print edition
·
FIVE months after a tsunami and nuclear
meltdown assailed Japan, the economy has been pummelled by fresh blows. Share
prices have followed global stockmarkets down, with the Nikkei 225 index
revisiting its nadir in the days after the earthquake in March. As if the fears
about a global slowdown that have depressed equity investors were not enough,
the yen has been soaring, which will hurt Japanese exporters. Adding to the
pain, Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, downgraded Japan’s debt rating one notch
to Aa3 on August 24th because of its huge public debt and chaotic politics.
Yet amid the gloom the outlook for a robust
recovery has actually been brightening. Private economists are forecasting a
boom in 2012 and 2013, as the rebuilding of the devastated Tohoku region in
north-eastern Japan acts as a big stimulus, which will offset slower growth in
America and Europe. Official estimates put the damage at between \16 trillion
and \25 trillion ($210 billion-330 billion). The government has already
budgeted for \6 trillion to pay for reconstruction, which has yet to kick in.
An additional stimulus package, perhaps as large as \10 trillion, is being
debated in the Japanese parliament. The surge in public spending means that
Japan is almost certain to resume growth in the second half of this year.
One auspicious sign is that the economy did
rather better in the second quarter of 2011 than had been feared. The recession
continued, as GDP fell for the third successive quarter. But the contraction of
0.3% (an annualised fall of 1.3%) from the first quarter was half the rate that
had been predicted. The main reason for the weakness was that exports declined
by almost 5% because of power shortages and the disruptions to the supply chain
that followed the disastrous events of March 11th.
These impediments to growth are being
removed but a fresh cause for concern is the strengthening yen. The government
is striving to prevent this but the fretting may be overdone. In nominal terms,
the value of the yen is hitting new highs. But in real terms, taking into
account Japan’s persistent deflation and inflation elsewhere, the yen is in
line with its average over the past two decades (see chart). That is one reason
why Japanese manufacturers have continued to make decent profits. Companies
gripe that the strong yen may push them to move operations overseas. Yet they
are heading there anyway, to be closer to consumers in faster-growing markets.
Japan’s reconstruction will provide a fillip
just when the country needs it. Still, the extra borrowing this will entail is
a big worry for an economy whose government debt will reach more than 230% of
GDP this year, according to the IMF—far higher even than that of beleaguered
Greece. Japan has been able to finance its borrowing at very low interest
rates, but getting a grip on its woeful public finances is crucial for its
long-term future.
Unfortunately, the political outlook is
worse than the economic one. Naoto Kan, the prime minister, steps down at the
end of August. Of the front-runners for the job, one urges fiscal constraint
while the other says growth should be the priority. But politicians of all
stripes are failing to spell out credible plans to restore fiscal sanity.
from the print edition | Finance and
Economics
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May 4, 2011
Dear
Friends,
Time
really flies fast! It has been more
than a month since I posted onto this site last. The world continues to move. A series of tornadoes hit six southern
states in the United States that left the most devastating damage, Prince
William and Ms. Middleton wed in royal fashion in the U.K., and Osama bin
Laden, the mastermind of the most devastating attack on American soil in modern
times and the most hunted man in the world, was killed in a firefight with United States forces in Pakistan (quotes from
The New York Times, May 1, 2011).
Thanks
for the donation sent by you and by the people throughout the world. We sincerely appreciate for hearty
assistants extended by all of them. As the proverb goes, "A friend in need
is a friend in deed" you are a true friend, indeed. I am thankful for having known you, and your
family for an extended period of time.
I do hope that our friendship will last forever.
Life
around me has begun to return to normal. The new academic year has started at
the university, and we try to conserve energy as much as possible! For example, we are not using the elevator,
if possible, turning off the light as much as possible, setting the thermometer
of the air-conditioner higher/lower than usual, etc., etc., etc. Thanks goodness, we do not have any more
of the so-called "scheduled blackouts" until the summer when the
consumption of the electricity usually gets the highest. Under these circumstances we will have the
spring semester 2-week shorter than usual by ending the in-class lecture during
the first week of July. I am not
sure if this should be welcome or not...
The
weather forecast predicts that we will have quite a hot summer this year again. Thus, perhaps, it is the wise decision
that our university administration has made.
As
for the update on the analysis for the quadruple disaster, namely earthquake,
Tsunami, Nuclear Plant, and the demagogue, please refer to the following four
websites in English. I feel that
they explain quite correctly the current state and what we feel.
(1) “Japan Is Open
for Business” by TAKEAKI MATSUMOTO, Japan’s Minister for Foreign Affairs (Published:
April 29, 2011, the New York Times): http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/opinion/30iht-edmatsumoto30.html
(2) “Japan’s
Recovery after the Quake” May 2, 2011, The Economist: http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/05/japans_recovery
(3) “What Will the N.R.C.
Learn From Fukushima?” by MATTHEW L. WALD (Published: May 2, 2011, “Environment”
section of the New York Times) http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/author/matthew-l-wald/
(4) “MIT Report Urges
Storing Spent Nuclear Fuel, Not Reprocessing It by MATTHEW L. WALD (Published:
April 26, 2011, “Environment” section of the New York Times) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/26/science/earth/26nuke.html?scp=3&sq=Teaching%20Ideas:%20Fukushima%20Nuclear%20Plant%20in%20Japan&st=cse
It is hoped that the above
articles will enhance your understanding on the true state of what we are
currently in. Japan is a very small
island country with just one twenty-fifth of the U.S. mainland. Please do
understand, however, that disaster hit regions of East Japan are not the entire
Japan, and it is away from the metropolitan Tokyo area. All of us have been truly gotten united
for the reconstruction of Japan, or even for the rebuilding of better Japan. We
look for your warm supports and encouragement. We all know well, however, it will take
years and years to come.
Hope to write again in the
not too distant future. Until then,
I remain with my best regards.
Fumie
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March 24, 2011
Dear Friends,
A STUNNINGLY MOVING STORY:
I had a phone call from my
best friend. She said that her
husband, a director of one of the leading general construction companies in
Japan, is the commander in chief at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Plant explosion
site. Although he certainly is well
aware of the serious health effects of radiation himself, he has been directing
the construction workers there with the Geiger apparatus on. As there was no other engineer willing
to take the responsibility, he himself volunteered its grave duty! All my prayers and best wishes go to him
and to my best friend.
Fumie
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March 21, 2011
Dear Friends,
Please do accept my profound
appreciation for your warmest concerns and prayers for the unprecedented
disaster we had in North-Eastern Part of Japan @2:46p.m.on March 11, 2011 At
the same time, please understand for neither being able to send this message
until now, nor send it personally.
I am fine now! (^__~)
Living close to the seashore, and
nearby the river as well, I had to stay at the evacuation shelter right after
the great quake hit Japan. On the way to the shelter I saw the tsunami wave
coming through the river. It was
very scary indeed! Although I am
home now, I must be on the alert whenever the aftershock occurs. In fact, there have been too many of
them this time. After nearly a fortnight, we still have them now, and will
continue for a month or so. Thus, I have to be on the alert all the time, ready
to put the helmet on, knapsack on (my 14KG flute inside!), down coat on, and so
on.
Then, what followed was the new
earthquake of the M6.4, the epicenter being near the Mt. Fuji area,
@10:31p.m.on the 15th, the area I live had a sever quake. It was neither an aftershock of the
great earthquake of the 11th, nor relating to the Tokai Great earthquake
expected to occur in the very near future around the area I live. Rest assured that I AM FINE & OK so
far!
The most serious concern of us all and
the world now is the problem associated with the nuclear power plant. All the scientists and engineers have
been working extremely hard, and all what I can do is not to believe in the
demagogue.*** At times, I feel such
media, as CNN tends to exaggerate the matter. Thus, for the update on the “crisis
in Japan” in English broadcasting, you may like to view the following public
broadcasting program:
NHK World (Nippon Hoso Kyokai=Japan Broadcasting Association).
URL: http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/
Effects of
Radiation on YouTube: John
Boice on health effects of radiation
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvT5EDU5vTc&feature=email
The NY Times: Japan — Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Crisis (2011)
URL: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/japan/index.html
NYT-The Learning Network: Teaching Ideas: The Earthquake and Tsunami in
Japan
URL: http://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/teaching-ideas-the-earthquake-and-tsunami-in-japan/
At the same time, we do need your support
for rebuilding this total devastation and disaster that Japan faces now. And, therefore, we appreciate for your
generosity to the following:
Charity for Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/info/info01.html
Due to the severe shortage of the
electric power, we are having the so-called “scheduled blackouts.” Consequently, transportation services
have been impaired tremendously. It is extremely difficult to concentrate on my
work. In addition, we must manage
properly for the new academic year that commences on the 1st of
April. I do wonder if Japan will
ever recover from the total devastation and the national crisis. We are determined to say, however, “Yes,
We Can, We Will, and We Must!!!”
Let me write to update again before too
long. Until then, I thank you once
more for sending the kindest thoughts of you.
Fumie
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Email:
HP-URL: http://members2.jcom.home.ne.jp/fkumagai/
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